A Double Standard on Leaks? As Whistleblowers Jailed, Petraeus Escapes Prison & Advises White House
http://www.newsweek.com/petraeus-advising-white-house-isis-313885
Convicted leaker Petraeus still advising White House
Stratfor and Leaks of U.S. Intelligence Sources and Methods |
STRATFOR MEMO
Re: INSIGHT – YEMEN – why champagne hangovers suck
Released on 2013-02-05 13:00 GMT
Email-ID 90306
Date 2010-02-05 22:14:51
From aaron.colvin@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name analysts@stratfor.com
On the money angle, it’s a perfect example of how opportunistic the tribes and players are in Yemen. Great stuff.
Sent from my iPhone
On Feb 5, 2010, at 2:41 PM, Michael Wilson
wrote:
PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Yemeni diplomat based in DC
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
.
This was a bit of a hectic, late night mtg so I didn’t get a focused discussion. King Fahd’s youngest son, Prince AbdelAziz was in town and challenged everyone to a champagne bottle drinking contest. He’s a total goof-off. I have a more serious mtg scheduled with the Yemeni diplomat for next wk. STTPML: Prince Abdel Aziz is of course a member of the Saudi Royal Family who are Wahabbi Muslims and this kind of sloppy braggadocio, on this kind of net, could be very damaging on many levels; including on the business side for Stratfor.
Source just came back from Yemen last week. Seems like they are making decent progress against AQAP and the Houthis. You know that song, moneymoneymoneymoney moonaaaay, monaaaay? well, that’s yemen right now. STTPML: This is so vile it is ugly to read even on an email never intended to become public. Trump’s theme for his show “The Apprentice” or “Jerry Maguire” “moonaaaay” out of carnage and less than amateur trade-craft?
The Saudis are pouring cash in to buy off militants, defectors, etc. through the tribes and it’s working. Source claims that AQAP is heavily infiltrated because of this. And their concerns over OpSec show. It’s just become a huge money-making business now. That’s why the Houthis want to negotiate directly with Saudi, and not through Sanaa and why Sanaa wants to be the mediator. They know whoever deals with the Saudis, gets money as part of the deal. Everybody wants a cut. STTPML: How many primary sources and methods, and from them secondary and tertiary ones, along with interests and intentions are evident or easily discovered in this one paragraph?
An example on the money angle — this one commander tells the Saudis give me 40,000 riyals, I’ll make the Houthis come down from XXXX (i’m forgetting the name of this hilltop right now). The commander takes the money, hands out 10,000 Riyals, keeps the rest for himself and they all come down. Because of deals like this Abdel Malik al Houthi doesn’t have control over the entire Houthi insurgency., just sub-factions here and there. STTPML: Again, how many sources, methods, operations, interests, intentions, and alliances are evident, or easily discoverable, from the information in this paragraph and the next ones as well ?
Yes, the Houthis were able to seriously raise their profile and embarrass Sanaa and Riyadh, but they’re pretty beaten down right now. The towns are all bulldozed. THey have nowhere to go. Just hiding out on hilltops right now.
The delay in the release of Echo is because the Yemenis got the intel to bomb their ‘computer’ labs in Arhab.
The Saudis and Americans aren’t giving any attention to the rehab proposals. Yemen has been asking them for support, but they’re not interested in that initiative right now. Nothing’s being done on it. What the Yemenis really want are more helos, which the US isn’t giving them. US says they already have enough transport and firepower, but is also blocking the Yemenis from striking any deals with the Russians, Chinese, etc to get them.
The Yemeni CT units are slowly (well, trying) to come up to speed. There’s a body that was created about a year ago, called the OSSF – office of strategic security forces or something like that. It’s 100,000 strong, trained by Jordanian and US intel, NSA. There’s a change in attitude by Sanaa on the CT front. Whereas before, the US would provide the coordinates on a target and the Yemenis would stall and stall, now they’re ready to take them out.
Whenever the source met with Saleh, Saleh was completely obsessed with the Houthi rebellion. THat’s at the top of the list of his priorities. he wants to end this for good.
(STTPML: Note reference is likely to Saleh bin Laden half-brother of Osama and among most powerful in bin Laden Clan)
Petraeus has become BFF with the Yemeni ambassador here. Dinners every other week at the amb’s house. Last time he came with this woman, not his wife. The Yemenis think she was his mistress, but i seriously doubt that he’d be that stupid considering how high profile he is. You can see Petraeus taking a much deeper interest in Yemen these days though. STTPML: Who was this woman not his wife? Was it Paula Broadwell? Was she cleared (security clearance level and “kneed” to know)? Was she cleared to be in the same room and know the identities of Spec Ops SEAL and Delta operators and methods? If it was Broadwell and was his mistress at the time, while a general and under UCMJ, then there are all sorts of other questions for and potential crimes by Petraeus. Does he still have and trade on his clearances from government “service”? Why did the Yemeni’s not know who the woman was? Why didn’t Petraeus introduce her?
Petraeus (after he drinks a few) says privately there is an Iranian link in Yemen, but it is not yet critical. STTPML: This memo is saying between-the-lines, barely, “Loo how close I got, in the same room with Petraeus and “some woman”, I got a hangover with him (do they give like a purple heart for wounds in the service of country?) and tells ME, privately (I got a scoop we can use and leverage) there is some kind of “Iranian link” in Yemen. Was any of this any part of Petraeus’ vetting prior to going to CIA?
Didn’t get much of a chance to go into any depth on the southerners and al Fadhli, but i will next wk.
–
Michael Wilson
Watchofficer
STRATFOR
michael.wilson@stratfor.com
(512) 744 4300 ex. 4112