| CIA and the Indian Nuclear Test And recommendations for intelligence/operational analysis |
| by Ralph McGehee |
CIA Missed Signs Of India’s Nuclear Test. CIA to Investigate.
A U.S. spy satellite clearly depicted activity last week at India’s remote desert nuclear test site, but U.S. intelligence officials scrutinizing the images failed to discern that India was preparing to conduct the three nuclear blasts it set off on Monday [May 11, 1998].
Even when “clear-cut” evidence of the nuclear test preparations was recorded by a satellite at midnight on Sunday, six hours before the tests, no CIA warning was issued because the U.S. analysts responsible for tracking the Indian nuclear program had not expected the tests. They were asleep at their homes and did not see the pictures until they arrived at work in the morning. As a result, the U.S. did not learn of the preparations until after the blasts had occurred, when news services carried accounts of a public acknowledgment by India’s Prime Minister. When the White House asked the CIA for details, the agency’s top officials had none.
CIA to “investigate” what went wrong. Washington Post 5/13/98 A1.
We can predict the outcome of this investigation — this sort of thing has happened many times before. The intelligence community will investigate itself and find this individual or that technique was to blame not the CIA itself. And then we can all go back to claiming that we have the “best intelligence service in the world,” as stated recently (and endlessly over the years) in a session of the House Intelligence Oversight Committee.
In the past there have been literally scores if not hundreds of intelligence failures — all excused, ignored or buried by officialdom.
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