Intelligence Sources and Methods: The Stratfor Leakers
Jim Craven/Omahkohkiaaiipooyii
Introduction
Intelligence work has always been a mystery to most people, and later even a genre in mass culture. The basic trade-craft of human intelligence (intelligence and counter-intelligence) has not changed much from the times of Sun Tzu Ping Fa over 2000 years ago. The technologies of intelligence employed in human analytical and operational trade-craft of course are always changing, but the basic personality types who seek to do intelligence work, the basic motives that drive them and those they turn (MICE–Money, Ideology, Compromised, Ego) and add Blood Loyalty, Revenge and Religion, are the same.
While the technologies of espionage have gotten progressively more sophisticated and wide-ranging since the times of Sun Tzu, the actors in intelligence appear to have gotten much less sophisticated in their trade-craft since the times of Sun Tzu.
What is more than ironic, is that in terms of protecting sources and methods, the U.S. Government, along with its private contractors with high-level clearances they brought over from government, are the biggest leakers of sources and methods; far more significant anything Snowden leaked out. This also applies to the memoirs of former intelligence operators, even the ones with the most spin in favor of their former employers and the most vetted prior to publication as required by law for some agencies. Check out these emails; check out the mind-sets of some of these “strategic analysts” with some high clearances turned into very lucrative commodities.
These are the minions, and in one case the ringleader, of those you see on the talking heads shows on Sunday morning; the ones in the “go-to” electronic rolodexes of the mainstream media for those “in the know” (and likely talking about some carnage they had a direct hand in creating and then dumping when the American–only kind that counts–body count and impacts on the deficits and debt, got out of hand. Now they are saying “Yes we learned some lessons and now we are going back to our old jobs, to do them right this time, and make sure that those who died and were maimed, did not die in vain; that we leave with “honor” (this is what a loser in Vegas says at the tables: “I just got to get back my losses and when I break even, then I am leaving but not until I can leave without losing face.”)
How do you leave, exit, “strategically staged with draw”, with “honor” from a war of the kind Nazis were hanged for at Nuremberg? https://sttpml.org/just-war-and-the-interrelated-predicates-and-precedents-of-nuremberg/ and https://sttpml.org/from-wikileaks-and-the-stratfor-emails-naked-historical-revisionism-racism-and-smug-entitlement-essay-why-anglos-lead-and-racist-email-correspondence-of-stratfor-geniuses/
We have highlighted in yellow, the kind of sensitive information that apparently still has not been addressed; commentary by STTPML also in orange.
Introduction to the Stratfor Memos
by Jim Craven/Omahkohkiaaiipooyii
Re: obama for rapid comment and impovement
Released on 2012-10-19 08:00 GMT
Email-ID 65604
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00
From bhalla@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
nothing on question of Pakistani cooperation? also, we should caveat the speculationon AQ counterattack.. we have seen very clearly the decline of AQ core, and this piece makes it sound like we have no idea what their capabilities are.
———————————————————————-
From: “George Friedman”
To: analysts@stratfor.com
Sent: Sunday, May 1, 2011 9:55:19 PM
Subject: obama for rapid comment and impovement
George Friedman
Founder and CEO
STRATFOR
221 West 6th Street
Suite 400
Austin, Texas 78701
Phone: 512-744-4319
Fax: 512-744-4334
Re: White House still acting shady on the photo release
Released on 2012-10-19 08:00 GMT
Email-ID 65615
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00
From bhalla@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net
wrote my thesis on it
———————————————————————-
From: “George Friedman”
To: “Analysts”
Sent: Tuesday, May 3, 2011 10:42:46 AM
Subject: Re: White House still acting shady on the [bin Laden] photo release
Its interesting that americans believe the us is bad at deception. This is not the view of foreign intelligence services who are constantly being whipsawed by us intelligence or think they are. This is a subject worth studying
I find that american officials outside intelligence or on the margins are the most convinced of this.
The american weakness is strategic intelligence but i dont see why the us is seen as weak on disinformation.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
STRATFOR MEMO
Re: INSIGHT – YEMEN – why champagne hangovers suck
Released on 2013-02-05 13:00 GMT
Email-ID 90306
Date 2010-02-05 22:14:51
From aaron.colvin@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name analysts@stratfor.com
On the money angle, it’s a perfect example of how opportunistic the tribes and players are in Yemen. Great stuff.
Sent from my iPhone
On Feb 5, 2010, at 2:41 PM, Michael Wilson
wrote:
PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Yemeni diplomat based in DC
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
.
This was a bit of a hectic, late night mtg so I didn’t get a focused discussion. King Fahd’s youngest son, Prince AbdelAziz was in town and challenged everyone to a champagne bottle drinking contest. He’s a total goof-off. I have a more serious mtg scheduled with the Yemeni diplomat for next wk. STTPML: Prince Abdel Aziz is of course a member of the Saudi Royal Family who are Wahabbi Muslim and this kind of sloppy braggadocio, on this kind of net, could be very damaging on many levels; including on the business side for Stratfor.
Source just came back from Yemen last week. Seems like they are making decent progress against AQAP and the Houthis. You know that song, moneymoneymoneymoney moonaaaay, monaaaay? well, that’s yemen right now. STTPML: This is so vile it is ugly to read even on an email never intended to become public. Trump’s theme for his show “The Apprentice” or “Jerry McGuire” “moonaaaay” out of carnage and less than amateur trade-craft?
The Saudis are pouring cash in to buy off militants, defectors, etc. through the tribes and it’s working. Source claims that AQAP is heavily infiltrated because of this. And their concerns over OpSec show. It’s just become a huge money-making business now. That’s why the Houthis want to negotiate directly with Saudi, and not through Sanaa and why Sanaa wants to be the mediator. They know whoever deals with the Saudis, gets money as part of the deal. Everybody wants a cut. STTPML: How many primary sources and methods, and from them secondary and tertiary ones, along with interests and intentions are evident or easily discovered in this one paragraph?
An example on the money angle — this one commander tells the Saudis give me 40,000 riyals, I’ll make the Houthis come down from XXXX (i’m forgetting the name of this hilltop right now). The commander takes the money, hands out 10,000 Riyals, keeps the rest for himself and they all come down. Because of deals like this Abdel Malik al Houthi doesn’t have control over the entire Houthi insurgency., just sub-factions here and there. STTPML: Again, how many sources, methods, operations, interests, intentions, and alliances are evident, or easily discoverable, from the information in this paragraph and the next ones as well ?
Yes, the Houthis were able to seriously raise their profile and embarrass Sanaa and Riyadh, but they’re pretty beaten down right now. The towns are all bulldozed. THey have nowhere to go. Just hiding out on hilltops right now.
The delay in the release of Echo is because the Yemenis got the intel to bomb their ‘computer’ labs in Arhab.
The Saudis and Americans aren’t giving any attention to the rehab proposals. Yemen has been asking them for support, but they’re not interested in that initiative right now. Nothing’s being done on it. What the Yemenis really want are more helos, which the US isn’t giving them. US says they already have enough transport and firepower, but is also blocking the Yemenis from striking any deals with the Russians, Chinese, etc to get them.
The Yemeni CT units are slowly (well, trying) to come up to speed. There’s a body that was created about a year ago, called the OSSF – office of strategic security forces or something like that. It’s 100,000 strong, trained by Jordanian and US intel, NSA. There’s a change in attitude by Sanaa on the CT front. Whereas before, the US would provide the coordinates on a target and the Yemenis would stall and stall, now they’re ready to take them out.
Whenever the source met with Saleh, Saleh was completely obsessed with the Houthi rebellion. THat’s at the top of the list of his priorities. he wants to end this for good.
(STTPML: Note reference is likely to Saleh bin Laden half-brother of Osama and among most powerful in bin Laden Clan)
Petraeus has become BFF with the Yemeni ambassador here. Dinners every other week at the amb’s house. Last time he came with this woman, not his wife. The Yemenis think she was his mistress, but i seriously doubt that he’d be that stupid considering how high profile he is. You can see Petraeus taking a much deeper interest in Yemen these days though. STTPML: Who was this woman not his wife? Was it Paula Broadwell? Was she cleared (security clearance level and kneed to know)? What she cleared to be in the same room and know the identities of Spec Ops SEAL and Delta operators and methods? If it was Broadwell and was his mistress at the time, while a general and under UCMJ, then there are all sorts of other questions for and potential crimes by Petraeus. Does he still have and trade on his clearances from government “service”? Why did the Yemeni’s not know who the woman was? Why didn’t Petraeus introduce her?
Petraeus (after he drinks a few) says privately there is an Iranian link in Yemen, but it is not yet critical. STTPML: This memo is saying between-the-lines, barely, “Loo how close I got, in the same room with Petraeus and “some woman”, I got a hangover with him (do they give like a purple heart for wounds in the service of country?) and tells ME, privately (I got a scoop we can use and leverage) there is some kind of “Iranian link” in Yemen. Was any of this any part of Petraeus’ vetting prior to going to CIA?
Didn’t get much of a chance to go into any depth on the southerners and al Fadhli, but i will next wk.
–
Michael Wilson
Watchofficer
STRATFOR
michael.wilson@stratfor.com
(512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
Re: INSIGHT – Yemen – Counterterrorism turf wars in DC
Released on 2013-02-05 13:00 GMT
Email-ID 1204569
Date 2010-09-04 23:33:33
From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name analysts@stratfor.com
Well, at this point Awlaki is a more serious threat than UBL. It’s not just a PR thing.
———————————————————————-
From: “Reva Bhalla”
To: “Analyst List”
Sent: Saturday, September 4, 2010 3:23:19 PM
Subject: INSIGHT – Yemen – Counterterrorism turf wars in DC
PUBLICATION: background/analysis
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: discussion over sheesha with Yemeni diplomat source
and two of Saleh’s younger sons
SOURCE Reliability : B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
Update on those leaks from a couple weeks ago on CIA recommendations to the administration to carry out drone strikes in Yemen… The administration has tasked out all the main agencies to give their recommendations on US counterterrorism policy toward Yemen, with a policy decision due by the end of the year.
There’s a huge turf war between CIA and JSOC over this, which is why all these leaks are coming out. First the CIA leaked their rec for drone strikes. Then CENTCOM leaked their rec for $1.2 billion assistance funding for Yemeni special forces (this was all Petraeus, who has a very good relationship with the Yemenis and goes to the Yemeni ambo’s house pretty regularly for dinner.The Yemenis are nervous about Mattis taking over Centcom. THey could deal well with Petraeus, whom they consider a ‘diplomat.’ Don’t know yet how to read Mattis.
There’s been a ton of media spin and leaks later about Anwar al Awlaki being the next bin Laden. OBL is becoming old news now. CIA and JSOC want a new target to claim success, so there’s a concerted campaign going on right now to play up al Awlaki as the #1 terrorist. Al Awlaki is much easier to target anyway and they have leads on him, so every agency wants to be the one to say they got him.
–
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
http://www.stratfor.com
Email-ID 65125
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00
From bhalla@stratfor.com
To gfriedman@stratfor.com
George, please, please, please respond to this one.
———————————————————————-
From: bdifalco@yahoo.com
To: responses@stratfor.com
Sent: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 12:13:02 PM
Subject: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: What Happened to
the American Declaration of War?
di falco, bob sent a message using the contact form athttps://www.stratfor.com/contact.
to Geo Friedman, mar 29, 11 yours on usa war and presidential idiots, is far short of the mark because you do not understand the USA, nor what it stands for, nor how it operates, nor its essential pro forma as to other nations, etc etc etc, because you were not born and raised in USA thus do not have an inborn knowhow of what usa is all about worse you submerged yourself in texas, austin of all places, where the folks and mentality are slightly below the mexican mafia, i.e. texas and its folks are not tuned in to USA if you want to understand The United States, you have to understand that it has to be at war all the time, and has in fact been in a shooting war every day since inception, and that the Militia took USA, as is ongoing, by war conquest, not by bullshitters like obama the messia caliph muslim who has the same problem you do because he was not born and raised in USA and moreso because he is a psychopath who lives in his mind rather than in reality i.e. he is a nutcase of the worse kind thus, to begin your education, of usa and its constant worldwide exploitation, read the original Declaration of Independence as written signed July 4, 1776 – first scan it in-entirety, then read it for depth of understanding, both ought take about half an hour, then let it simmer in your mind without you tinkering with it when you understand said Independence,then do the same with our constitution as written 18th century, and after awhile you might get the gist of what we who are born and raised in usa know for our reality that you do not have a clue as to any of it it was stupid of the voters to put obama in white house because he is not qualified by the constitutional mandate that a pres shall be born on continental USA etc etc thus there is no way he can ever properly op USA, no way…once you have mastered the essence of above Independence and constitution, read the United States Code, which is the next paramount law that exercises and mandates and achieves the dictates of Independence and its trust instrument for op of USA Govt, reading time about 4 hours, deal with it the same as above for the paramount dictates of independence and op of govt,you will be amazed,,,,,,,,, i will be amazed if this brings your intellect up to the level of a 7 year old who was born and raised in USA otherwise you write an excellant forum, mostly good stuff, but would be better if you understood the USA Concept, as very few experts, especially pontificators, do….
your friend
bob
Source:
strong>FW: CIA head of analysis fired
Released on 2012-02-27 15:00 GMT
Email-ID 3438302
Date 2004-12-29 16:54:06
From iser@stratfor.com
To allstratfor@stratfor.com
I wanted to forward these comments from George to the entire team so that everyone at Stratfor is aware of the incredible opportunity/challenge we are faced with.
Iser
—–Original Message—–
From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, December 29, 2004 9:13 AM
To: analysts@stratfor.com; exec@stratfor.com
Subject: CIA head of analysis fired
Jamie Miscik, Deputy Director of Intelligence at the CIA was fired today. As DDI, she ran the analytic shop. According to media reports, she was fired for squandering resources on day to day reports while ignoring the broad trends. In other words, she was fired for looking at the trees and being unable to see the forest. She was also accused of spending too much time updating policy makers and too little time trying to grasp the broad trends–giving customers what they wanted instead of what they needed. In the end, it was her customers that turned on her.
My charge against her was and remains that she took no pride in her craft and turned intelligence into PR and shoddy process. She and her gang are now history.
This gives Stratfor an enormous, historic opportunity. The CIA model of analysis has been invalidated. The ponderous, process driven machine that could only manage the small things now needs to be replaced by a robust, visionary, courageous analytic system. Stratfor has the opportunity to show the way. In fact, we are showing the way. Everyone in Langley knows that we do things they have never been able to do with a small fraction of their resources. They have always asked how we did it. We can now show them and maybe they can learn.
Our annual and decade forecast will, I guarantee you, be read by everyone at the CIA. They are looking for new models and they are looking at us. Every ounce of excellence that Stratfor owns will go into those two pieces. This will not only be good business, it will serve our country. They will be a road map to the craft of intelligence.
Allan Dulles said that intelligence was a craft. It is not a mass production line. The architects of misbegotten process in intelligence have failed and are out. It is our chance to step to the plate. It’s a rare moment and I want everyone in intelligence to take a break from working to think, dream and imagine. This is our chance to do it right.
It is Stratfor’s chance to make intelligence history and build a major business at the same time. It is a moment I have been waiting for–and knew was coming–since 1996, when George Tenet was appointed DCI and Stratfor was founded. I, for one, am going to show them how it’s done. I invite each of you to join me. This, ladies and gentlemen, is it.
—————————————————————–
Fwd: [Social] [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: The Tactical Irrelevance of Osama bin Laden’s Death
Released on 2012-10-19 08:00 GMT
Email-ID 65601
Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00
From bhalla@stratfor.com
To rohin.peace@gmail.com
crazy reader response
From: “Sean Noonan”
To: “Social list”
Sent: Monday, May 2, 2011 5:46:11 PM
Subject: Re: [Social] [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: The
Tactical Irrelevance of Osama bin Laden’s Death
This just blew my mind.
On 5/2/11 12:25 PM, wrbarryjr@yahoo.com wrote:
walter Barry, Jr. sent a message using the contact form athttps://www.stratfor.com/contact.
there is only one storyline that holds together and explains the courious obama mystery in all matters, including the killing of osama. that the two men were brothers in a large bin laden family (there is only one letter different in their names) their facial features are about the same: add a beard to obama. their hatred of the west and the usa is the same their seemingly access to unlimited funds are the same the bin laden in the white house is osama bin laden, not obama this explains the birther mystery, why in the second day in office bin laden signed off to close gitmo because ultimately that is where the couriers would unravel the fraud. after the 2003 failere to explode the twin towers from afar, osoma and obama switched places. that is why no one at occcidental, columbia, harvard or anywhere knew either brother osama emerged from this smoke as obama and thru hope and change became president. thus the killing of the brother yesterday was necessay to permently secure the real osama bin laden in the white house. the killing had to be an eyewitness event, with dna and a fast burial at sea. thus the phoney bin laden (obama) is gone forever and the real one (osama bin laden) is in the white house! call me at 831 625 9990
walter barry
Source:
http://us.mg3.mail.yahoo.com/dc/blank.html?bn=559&.intl=us&.lang=en-US
–
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
http://www.stratfor.com
——————————————-
From: Mirela Glass [mailto:glass@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2006 10:23 AM
To: allstratfor@stratfor.com
Subject: Stratfor on YouTube
Dear all,
A challenge for all of us this holiday season! Let’s put on our creative caps and think of possible ways to get Stratfor on YouTube.
We are looking for ideas of possible videos we can create on geopolitical, security and public policy themes. The videos will have to be short, under 5 minutes, interesting, entertaining and provocative. We are looking for the `wow’ effect! No promotional content, no sales pitch allowed!
Please send me your ideas for either topics, themes, or if you dare go further, complete scripts.
Have fun!
Mirela Ivan Glass
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
Marketing Manager
T: 512-744-4325
F: 512-744-4334
Email: glass@stratfor.com
https://sttpml.org/sttpml-who-we-are-and-what-we-are-about/
Here was the response to the request for ideas for You Tube promotionals:
RE: Stratfor on YouTube
Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT
Email-ID 5027
Date 2006-11-15 16:36:46
From kornfield@stratfor.com
To allstratfor@stratfor.com
I bet a film of a blue sky discussion would be interesting. Particularly if George, Reva and Rodger all vehemently disagree with each other.
Possible titles:
“Why China sucks and Iraq doesn’t matter.”
“How to make ricin in three easy steps.”
“Bolivia, World Hegemon.”
“Nice things to say about Africa.”
“How long will Poland last?”
“What if the world’s whole population got to vote in the next U.S.
presidential election?”
“Turkey: Attaboy.”
“The Seethers of Lebanon”
“Is that Hizbullah or he just happy to see me?”
We could also have a Christmas peep microwaving session, and discuss the
analogy between melting marshmellow and… [choose your own adventure].
STTPML: And just to show that these strategic minds, these global thinkers, with contacts and juice all over the planet, can relate to people and potential sources all over the world; from diverse cultures, races. religions and even political systems and paradigms:
STTPML: or this kind of mentality:
RE: The Mexican, the arab, and the jersey girl
Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT
Email-ID 5982
Date 2007-03-20 14:20:28
From campbell@stratfor.com
To social@stratfor.com, jeremy.edwards@stratfor.com
HAHA, small, simple things humor me when I sit alone in my
apartment with no face to face human contact each day.
—–Original Message—–
From: Jeremy Edwards [social@stratfor.com
Subject: Re: The Mexican, the arab, and the jersey girl
Your great grandparents used to laugh at that joke when their great-grandparents told it to them.
sarah campbell wrote:
A Mexican drinks his beer and suddenly throws his glass in the air, pulls out his pistol and shoots the glass to pieces. He says, “In Mexico our glasses are so cheap we don’t need to drink from the same glass twice.”
An Iraqi, obviously impressed by this, drinks his beer, throws his glass into the air, pulls out his AK-47 and shoots the glass to pieces. He says, “In Iraq we have so much sand to make glasses that we don’t need to drink out of the same glass twice either.
The Jersey Girl, cool as a cucumber, picks up her beer and drinks it, throws her glass into the air, pulls out her gun and shoots the Mexican and the Iraqi, and catches her glass. She says, “In New Jersey we have so many illegal Mexicans and Arabs that we don’t have to drink with the same ones twice.
hahahaha.
Sarah Campbell
*Stratfor* *Strategic Forecasting, Inc*.
Briefer
T: 202.349.1748
F: 202.349.8655
Campbell@Stratfor.com
————————————————–
Jeremy Edwards
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
Writer/Copyeditor
T: 512-744-4321
F: 512-744-4434
jeremy.edwards@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com
————————————————————-
RE: The Mexican, the arab, and the jersey girl
Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT
Email-ID 6035
Date 2007-03-20 14:27:18
From scott.stewart@stratfor.com
To social@stratfor.com
Being that I’m from Pennsylvania, that joke is far more flattering than any joke my grandaddy EVER told me about Jersey Girls.=20
In fact, he probably would have said something to the effect that since there are so many illegal aliens in Jersey that they Jersey Girls never have to sleep with the same ones twice.